000 AXNT20 KNHC 181752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 1N20W...THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 1S26N TO 1N43W TO THE EQUATOR AT 51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N EAST OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 30N AND 36W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ALOFT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 21N95W TO 16N93W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE THU NIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY INTO WED. SHALLOW MOISTURE...EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES... PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO ADVECTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA AND THE PANAMANIAM/COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN FACT...THE 1410 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 30 KT IN THAT AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. HISPANIOLA... A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WILL HELP TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N51W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 27N58W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FROM TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PRETTY WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 72W-73W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL OF 1024 MB NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FL. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. FRESH NE FLOW IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTO EASTERN CUBA. EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A LOW PRES OVER AFRICA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS LATER TODAY INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AS HIGH PRES PRESENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WILL BE REINFORCING BY STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 17N29W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR