000 AXNT20 KNHC 180601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 1N20W AND CONTINUES TO 1S30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N EAST OF 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ALOFT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC SW TO FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. RETURN FLOW ALONG THE N-NW GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS IS GENERATING ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N WEST OF 89W AND IS KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO HONDURAS. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AS WELL AS NW HONDURAS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HAITI INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES INDICATE TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT WITHIN 200 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...A WESTWARD MOVING MOIST AIRMASS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO THESE REGIONS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED FROM TUE NIGHT TO WED NIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 30 KT WITH 20 KT DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY NE WIND FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THU LIMITING ANY SHOWERS TO THE LOWER LEVELS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS PART OF THE W ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NEAR 30N54W AND CONTINUES TO 28N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N65W TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N59W TO 20N63W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE THE COLD PORTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATING BY EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR