000 AXNT20 KNHC 172332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-41W TO 00N47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-30W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 7W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 24N83W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA COVERING THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N84W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF. A COLD FRONT INLAND OVER TEXAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE COAST OF TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST BETWEEN 75W-78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N E OF 84W. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS 25N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N34W. STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE AS THE COLD PORTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATING BY EARLY WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NORTHERN WATERS LATE WED AND SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW