000 AXNT20 KNHC 171744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEON NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 25N. THE FRONT HAS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS ONLY A BROAD TROUGH IS PRESENT NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM 32N67W TO 24N74W. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF ABOUT 25N AND BECOME A SHEAR LINE WITHIN A DAY OR SO...WHILE NORTH OF 25N THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SCATTEROMETER...BUOYS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ONLY FRESH BREEZE WINDS AT MOST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY AFFECT EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 32N35W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS PRIMARILY E OF 50W BETWEEN 10 AND 25N. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT DAY...THESE TRADEWINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS WELL. ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND WINDS REMAIN AT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH EASTERLIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF VEERING TO SOUTHERLIES IN THE WESTERN GULF. WHILE SOME LOW-CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...NO RAINFALL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE U.S. GULF COAST TODAY. DUE TO LACK OF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS APPROACHING FRONT MAY PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG THE NORTHERNMOST GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES NOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING COASTAL AREAS. THE CARIBBEAN IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTWARD- FACING TERRAIN OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE SOUTHWARD. THE TRADEWINDS ARE TYPICALLY AT MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EXCEPTION...AS IS USUAL...IS ENE WIND UP TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...HISPANIOLA... NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES NOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION ARE PRESENT OVER AND NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE CARIBBEAN IS OVERLAID BY SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTWARD-FACING TERRAIN OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHERN HAITI. THE TRADEWINDS ARE AT MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS OR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA