000 AXNT20 KNHC 171143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N15W AND 2N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N21W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 1S30W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 105W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 26N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO 22N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN 67W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 29N60W 27N63W 25N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 25N67W...TO 70W THROUGH HISPANIOLA...TO 12N84W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N63W... ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N57W-TO-26N64W-TO-22N77W COLD FRONT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KEMK...KHQI...KEHC... KCRH...KEIR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LOUISIANA TO PERRY FLORIDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...EVENTUALLY TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA...AND THEN BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA TO 70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED MORE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 25N67W...TO 70W AS IT PASSES THROUGH HISPANIOLA...TO 12N84W ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST... COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS PARTS OF MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...MAURITANIA...AND ALGERIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. PLEASE CONSULT THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N57W-TO-22N77W COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N36W...30N42W 28N48W AND 25N60W...TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO 27N63.5W TO 21N77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 15 FEET IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 31N52W TO 23N68W TO 23N72W TO 31N73W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET FROM 8N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 46W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N52W TO 19N63W TO 9N59W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT