000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 21W AND 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 3S BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 105W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N65W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT... ALONG 29N62W 26N66W 23N70W TO 20N73W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 30N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 30N67W 23N65W 14N82W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N66W... ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 21N97W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N58W-TO-ANDROS ISLAND COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT NEARLY ALL THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITY IS 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...EVENTUALLY TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA...AND THEN BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 74W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N83W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 6N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED MORE TO THE TRADEWIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITH THE 29N62W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 360 NM TO THE WEST OF 30N67W 23N65W 14N82W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS PARTS OF MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...MAURITANIA...AND ALGERIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE EAST OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO. PLEASE CONSULT THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N58W-TO-ANDROS ISLAND AND SURFACE TROUGH. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N36W...29N45W 28N54W AND 24N67W...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N60W TO 23N75W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N54W TO 22N72W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET FROM 10N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N54W TO 21N64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT