000 AXNT20 KNHC 161732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N13W AND CONTINUES TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N14W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 5N5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W- 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC E OF 90W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AT 16/1500 UTC EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N COAST OF CUBA ALONG 23N80W TO 22N86W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. BROKEN/ OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 24N W OF 95W. HOWEVER DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE OF AREA TODAY LEAVING AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER E CUBA PROVIDING MOISTURE TO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NE SURFACE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT AND THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GENERATE A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N- 19N BETWEEN 73W-77W INCLUDING SW HAITI AND E JAMAICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO S BELIZE. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SW HAITI. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTRODUCING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER HAITI THROUGH WED. A POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 60W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND EXTENDS 25N73W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AT 16/1500 UTC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W 26N66W TO CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 74W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W. COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN LOSING IDENTITY N OF HISPANIOLA LATE MON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK SHIFTING TO N FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW