000 AXNT20 KNHC 161158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N18W AND 4N23W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N23W 3N25W 1N27W AND 1N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...AND FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 16W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 110W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N64W TO 26N70W AND CUBA NEAR 22N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N61W 26N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N66W 23N73W 21N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.10 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 28N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W...TO 24N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS MARKS THE COLD FRONT QUITE WELL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE BERMUDA-TO-24N89W COLD FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N86W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI... KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...AND KSPR. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED FROM VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS TO BAY CITY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS...ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...AND IN THE WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE IN THESE SAME AREAS. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...EVENTUALLY TO VENEZUELA...AND THEN BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS 60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 66W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 80W IN CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 6N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CROSS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAIN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 6 HOURS AGO. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OR SO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THIS SAME AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 22W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS PARTS OF MOROCCO...THE WESTERN SAHARA...AND MAURITANIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 30W. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N67W 28N70W 21N77W IN CUBA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N33W TO 32N39W 29N50W 25N59W 23N65W...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N65W TO 24.5N80W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 18 FEET...HIGHEST NORTH...TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 56W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF... NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N41W TO 24N64W TO 18N63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT