000 AXNT20 KNHC 152341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE SW TO W WINDS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-79W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 01N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 04W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 15W-28W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 41W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 37N74W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N82W THEN WESTWARD TO 26N91W. AS WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF...RESULTING IN MERELY A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED N-NW WINDS...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT...AS DEPICTED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 15/1556 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF W OF 90W AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA NEAR 09N61W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 84W-90W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TRADES OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W- 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE NW ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER BY MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WATERS PROVIDING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N74W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. WHILE REMAINING PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THE MOST PART...GALE FORCE WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH SIDE OF THE FRONT ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM 32N63W W-SW TO 29N70W THEN SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N72W TO 32N64W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N13W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 22N16W TO 20N30W. TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N32W IS GENERATING A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 25N E OF 21W...AS NOTED ON EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN