000 AXNT20 KNHC 151739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N13W TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N20W 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 5W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A DRY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL TO SARASOTA THEN ALONG 27N84W TO 26N91W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 19N82W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND VERY DRY AIR W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE SOME MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUN AS THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND SUN INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A DRY FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W AND CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N75W ALONG 29N78W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N63W ALONG 29N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO 31N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS IT MERGES WITH THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THEN STALLING FROM 32N58W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP N OF THE BAHAMAS LATE MON WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUE INTO WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW