000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N10W 3N18W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 1S34W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 4S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 110W ACROSS MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N68W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N68W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W...TO 20N82W AND TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N64W TO 24N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.00 IN BERMUDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...IN HONDURAS...AND IN HAITI AND ITS WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...SET TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WITH TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N92W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVBS...KATP...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KIPN IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... FROM THE PANAMA CITY-TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA ALSO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 27N89W. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 91W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/ NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS 60W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 12N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN TRADEWIND FLOW...COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 3N77W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 72W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NOT RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSS THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...IN HONDURAS...AND IN HAITI AND ITS WESTERN COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL REACH THE AREA DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A SEPARATE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W AND 25N24W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N24W TO 24N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 30N47W 29N52W 26N58W 23N65W...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 20W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 16 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N42W TO 20N50W TO 12N50W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT