000 AXNT20 KNHC 142347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. LATE SATURDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 15/1200 UTC ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH WEST WINDS PREVAILING WEST OF THE FRONT AND SW WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 01N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 06W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 24W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE YUCATAN REGION AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 36N91W. WHILE MOST OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W...CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDING GENERALLY S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT...AND A HIGHER RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS N OF 26N W OF 87W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS OVERNIGHT AND CLIP THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 09N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE BROAD TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W SW TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TOBAGO. TRADES OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND WITHIN MOIST E-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE NW ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS COAST. GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND LIE WITHIN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WATERS PROVIDING AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N62W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-28W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES BETWEEN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH A BASE DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N16W SW TO 26N30W THEN W-SW TO 25N40W. FROM THIS POINT W- NW THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N38W. 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