000 AXNT20 KNHC 141804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC DEVELOPING GALE...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE REGION WEST OF A NEW COLD FRONT TO COASTAL WATERS WHERE W WINDS OF 25-40 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WHERE SW WINDS FROM 30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 12 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SW TO 05N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N26W TO 01N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-06N EAST OF 17W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S-05N BETWEEN 37W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT NOW IN THE WESTERN ATLC IS OVER THE GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N87W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5-10 KT EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY WHICH SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE S-SE BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA SW ALL THE WAY TO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EASTERN BASIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ITS BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WHICH IS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS OF NW JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO 19N81W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE STREAMING W-NW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADES OF 15-20 KT SPREADS ELSEWHERE WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER NW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A DYING COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING W-NW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE ALSO ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN...ENHANCING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ITS BASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N64W TO 24N70W TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-71W. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC SAT MORNING GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS W AND E OF THE BOUNDARY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N23W TO 25N38W WHERE ITS STARTS DISSIPATING. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR