000 AXNT20 KNHC 141114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29 N W OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF FRONT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTH TO 07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 03N35W TO COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N90W...FOLLOWING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATED FRESH SE RETURN FLOW IS STARTING OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION...AN OSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0630 UTC INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS. THESE WINDS ARE INCREASING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH PRES AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA APPEARS TO BE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS NOTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS APPEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE FRONT IS STARTING TO STALL AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NE. UPPER FORCING IS STILL SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS FROM GRAND CAYMAN THROUGH SE CUBA. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW PERSISTS NW OF THE DYING FRONT. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUE N OF PANAMA ALONG A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY N OF PANAMA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W DUE TO SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE. ...HISPANIOLA... ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAKENING...THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HAITI AND WEST CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...BUT RETURN WITH THE NORMAL DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN...ENHANCING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PERSISTENT AND ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF A STALLING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG TO GALE FORCE W TO NW FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING...BUT APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 26N45W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N57W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH STRONG SE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH PRES N OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 22N. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ERODED THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE ATLANTIC...THUS TRADE WIND FLOW E OF 30W IS NOW MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN