000 AXNT20 KNHC 132358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29 N W OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 70W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SECOND GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT SAT AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF FRONT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N18W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N26W 2N35W 1N47W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION BUT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA W OF 80W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS WITH CLEARING SKIES ALONG THE N COAST N OF 28N AND THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N AND E GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N83W TO OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N79W THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 16N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 18N. THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT WITH MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL W OF THE ISLAND THEN DISSIPATE AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS. A SECOND FRONT WILL SWEEP E SAT THROUGH SUN AND COULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/2100 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N77W TO OVER CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-28N AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. CLUSTERS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA. THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N32W ALONG 25N63W TO 15N49W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS TO 28N44W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N54W TO 29N60W WHICH CONNECTS TO A WARM FRONT THE EXITS THE REGION NEAR 32N63W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W AND BRIDGES THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A WEAKER 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N41W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E AND EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY FRI AND FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA FRI EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N WATERS SAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND GALE WARNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW