000 AXNT20 KNHC 131803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W TO NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 29N WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 24N80W TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT. S TO SW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W WITH SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS N OF 28N FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF 65W THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W THEN TO 05N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N30W TO 01N41W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-34W AND FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 35W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 997 MB LOW OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT CONNECTED TO THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE GULF WATERS LEAVING BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BASIN RANGE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE FORTIES AND HIGHER FIFTIES WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATING BASIN WIDE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N95W COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START ENTERING THE BASIN NORTHERN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO 25N89W BY SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 997 MB LOW OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERED THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AT 1500 UTC EXTENDING ALONG 22N84W TO 19N87W TO 16N87W. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N82W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO 50W IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH ALONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 78W-82W...INCLUDING CENTRAL CUBA. EASTERLY TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE UP TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING W-NW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC MAY ENHANCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NW ACROSS THE ISLAND IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM LATE TODAY INTO SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N76W TO WESTERN FREEPORT NEAR 26N78W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 73W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST TO 68W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 28N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N43W TO 27N53W TO 29N62W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N15W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR