000
AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                         
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD 
FRONT MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. THE GALES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF 28N 
WEST OF 65W THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 
11N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ WEST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
MORNING...CONNECTED TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR 
29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE NW WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS RUNNING 
6 TO 9 FT. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LINES 
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
LOW PRESSURE AND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF FROM WEST TO 
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER INTO THE NW GULF LATE 
THURSDAY...AND MOVE EASTWARD REACHING FROM SW FLORIDA TO 27N93W 
BY LATE SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...WITH THE ROUTINE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS IS DOWN FROM 
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. THE WEAKER TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO DIMINISHING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
A FEW CONVERGENT SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE STREAMING WESTWARD OFF THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING 
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. 
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND ALONG THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF PANAMA DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND SPEED 
CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO 
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AND BECOME 
DIFFUSE BY LATE FRI FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
  
...HISPANIOLA...                                            
CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER 
LEVELS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER CUBA FRI 
ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS 
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM LATE TODAY 
INTO SAT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM THE NW 
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS WEST OF 75W. THIS IS AHEAD OF 
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED 
STATES. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR PANAMA CITY WITH 
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND INTO THE WATERS 
OF THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
WILL PROCEED THE FRONT N OF 28N AS FAR WEST AS 65W. THE FRONT 
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N60W 
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG A 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N50W TO 27N60W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N24W. 
FRESH TRADE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH OF 22N TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N48W TO 09N50W IS 
ENHANCING AREAS OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO 
18N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WEST OF 25W.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN