000 AXNT20 KNHC 122340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 26N W OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WARNING WILL END THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT MOVES INTO THE W ATLC AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 7N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W 1N46W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM. A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW AT 12/2100 UTC IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N87W 22N89W 20N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W AND CONTINUING W AND NE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB LOW TO OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N85W TO MERIDA MEXICO AND A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST N OF 23N. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF BY THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF FRI NIGHT AND E OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND INTO THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER W CUBA...YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA E OF 80W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI KEEPING ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO OVER CUBA FRI ADVECTING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FRI THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N79W EXTENDING A COLD FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 77W AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW ALONG 31N74W WHERE IT CONNECTS TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH CONNECTS TO A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W. THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 72W TO BEYOND 32N. FLAT NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W ATLC BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE U.S. MID ATLC STATES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N78W TO S FLORIDA BY THU MORNING AND RAPIDLY SHIFT E ACROSS TO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR W ATLC SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW