000 AXNT20 KNHC 121802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NW TO N GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N WEST OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB NEAR 29N86W TO 24N91W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC WATERS AT 0600 UTC THU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N W OF 76W. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N14W TO 03N21W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 23N91W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 29N83W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TEXAS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND PROVIDES N-NW WIND FLOW WITH GALE FORCE S OF 26N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS STREAMING NE BETWEEN A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY SW TO 25N90W TO 21N93W AND A LINE FROM ST PETERSBURG TO 24N86W TO 20N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...S-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY EARLY THU AS WELL...DRIVING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE WITH ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE 20-25 KT WINDS SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT MIDDLE AND LOW LEVELS. OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W-SW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N80W TO 29N76W TO 30N70W. CURRENTLY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N WEST OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC WATERS AT 0600 UTC THU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR