000 AXNT20 KNHC 121045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N WEST OF A 95W. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE TO COLD...DRY AIR FUNNELING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 29N89W TO 26N93W TO 20N97W. THE LOW PRES AREA OFF LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THU...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONT SWEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHIFTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC WATERS THU. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N78W TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU MORNING AND WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT. MINIMAL GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 77W LATE TONIGHT... SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO 01N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN COMING INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...ENERGIZING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS DEEPENING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOWS THE LOW PRES IS DOWN TO 1009 MB NEAR THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OFF LOUISIANA. WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE JUST WEST OF THE LOW PRES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 29N89W TO 26N90W. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS LIMITED TO 1 TO 3 FT. THROUGH THU...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR OFF LOUISIANA TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY EARLY THU AS WELL...DRIVING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AS WELL. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING THE NORMAL FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. DEEP RICH MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IS NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW TOPPED BUT FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THU THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BY EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGING ALONG 29N WEST OF 60W IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR 29N70W...LONG THE REMNANT OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WILL WAVER NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30N27W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TRADES PREVAILING SOUTH OF 22N...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS NORTH OF 22N CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N40W TO 14N45W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W TO 45W. MUCH DRIER AIR PREVAILS WEST OF 40W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN