000 AXNT20 KNHC 120601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FOR WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N WEST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 26N94W TO 21N97W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N80W TO 30N81W. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 76W STARTING EARLY THU. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-06N EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN COMING INTO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...INVIGORATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY FOR NOW FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 26N93W. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. FUNNELING OF THIS DENSER AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...AS NOTED IN AN OSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 18 UTC. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO ABBEVILLE LOUISIANA. LIGHT SE FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS LIMITED TO 1 TO 3 FT. THROUGH THU...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N93W TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING AND REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY THU. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF BY EARLY THU AS WELL...DRIVING CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NW FLOW WITH SEAS BUILDING 6 TO 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AS WELL. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING THE NORMAL FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE IS ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. DEEP RICH MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IS NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOW TOPPED BUT FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THU THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BY EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGING ALONG 29N WEST OF 60W IS STARTING TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR 29N70W...LONG THE REMNANT OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WILL WAVER NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30N27W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TRADES PREVAILING SOUTH OF 22N...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS NORTH OF 22N CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N40W TO 14N45W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W TO 45W. MUCH DRIER AIR PREVAILS WEST OF 40W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTION. OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NOTICEABLE IN ASCAT DATA...IS NORTHEAST OF THE LOW NEAR 30N69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN