000 AXNT20 KNHC 120002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FOR WINDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N WEST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 26N96W TO 21N98W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 12. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC STARTING AT 0600 UTC FEBRUARY 13 AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THAT DAY. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W TO 01N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-06N EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC CANADA SW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG PANAMA CITY TO 27N90W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W TO 22N95W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER NE ILLINOIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW N AND W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 26N W OF FRONT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 92W-95W COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SAME IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE AREAS N OF THE FRONT WHERE NO CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...DENSE FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 12. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE REGION WHILE A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE TIME. HOWEVER...AT THE LOWER LEVELS THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF MODERATE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHICH ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BY THURSDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO BELIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BY EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 140 NM EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...NOTICEABLE IN ASCAT DATA...IS NORTHEAST OF THE LOW NEAR 30N69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N29W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR