000 AXNT20 KNHC 110544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL AHEAD OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS IS PROVIDING MODEST SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. WEAK OVERRUNNING IS MAINTAINING SOLID DECKS OF STRATO-CUMULUS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF. BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS...BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WHERE THE FRONT MAY BE STARTING TO TEMPORARILY STALL. WEAK MESOSCALE LOW PRES IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR GRANDE ISLE. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AT THIS TIME UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR PENSACOLA. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR GALE OR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY EARLY TOMORROW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED LOW TOPPED BUT FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONGER TRADE WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 65W...AND AGAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOSTLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO 26N73W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL BECOME ENERGIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE TONIGHT AND WED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS ALONG THE DYING FRONT NEAR 30N64W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N WEST OF 65W...MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 30N. MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTES SOUTH OF 22N. WEST OF 65W THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N28W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 27N65W. DRIER SAHARAN AIR DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 20W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW NORTH OF 22N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N. ALTIMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N47W TO 12N52W AND IS MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN