000 AXNT20 KNHC 102331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-9W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE GULF AT 10/2100 UTC AND EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W THEN ALONG 28N98W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 19N84W. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO TUE MORNING. E PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR PENSACOLA WED WITH W PORTION BEING FORCED QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY SE THU EXITING THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N TO ACROSS CUBA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 73W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-83W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA E OF 78W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. THIS WILL BRING THE SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUING ALONG 8N68W TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 63W-69W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO 27N52W. A LARGER UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N28W TO BEYOND 32N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TUE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS WED NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW