000 AXNT20 KNHC 101751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 8N17W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N8W 6N14W 3N32W 6N37W 7N44W 6N52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 88W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND. IT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...THROUGH EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PASSING THROUGH 100W FROM 28N TO 29N IN SOUTH TEXAS...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...TO A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W...ANGLING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N98W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVAF. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK... AND KATP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COVER PARTS OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS RAINING IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVERS THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER LOUISIANA. LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE IN LOUISIANA ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A FEW LOW CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEGINNING AND/OR ALREADY HAVE BEGUN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY TO NAPLES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 28N94W TO 26N97W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 93W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST OF 80W... WESTERLY BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND NORTHWESTERLY TO THE EAST OF 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 27N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N56W AND 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W IN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 8N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AND MOVE TO PUERTO RICO DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TO 19N61W AT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WITH MULTIPLE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N69W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N69W AND IT CONTINUES TO 27N73W AND 26N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 24N66W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.69 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.23 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N47W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N56W...TO 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 29N BETWEEN 38W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N19W TO 30N30W 28N41W 26N48W 25N59W AND 25N70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N58W-TO- 26N75W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W TO 20N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT