000
AXNT20 KNHC 100556
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
105 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 
04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 01W-07W... 
AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 25W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PATTERN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ALOFT OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AS ONLY A VERY SUBTLE 
WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A 
RESULT...RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W INFLUENCES MUCH 
OF THE GULF WATERS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING ANALYZED TO 
THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WESTWARD ALONG 31N TO CENTRAL 
TEXAS. WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN 
THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD AND 
EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON 
INTO EVENING. STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 
30 KT ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS 
OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                           
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING FOR RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT 
INTO MONDAY. ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...IN THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF 
CUBA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. 
OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
E OF 69W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO MOISTURE 
ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. IN ADDITION...OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE 
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A 
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-81W.

...HISPANIOLA...                                            
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS 
THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE 
TO WESTERLY FLOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH 
ATLC THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N60W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE... 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 29N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN