000 AXNT20 KNHC 100002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N16W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W TO 1S33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 15W AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 29W-46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR CALGARY CANADA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE GULF. RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN IS BEING REINFORCED BY A NEWLY FORMED 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W THAT IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SE OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO 25N90W TO 23N95W AND EASTERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE REMAINDER BASIN. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. THIS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF ALONG 24N81W TO 23N85W TO 22N90W. FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPORT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FADE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BASIN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AND STABLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXCEPT FOR THE NW BASIN WHERE MODERATE MOIST AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT TO THE NW BASIN WHICH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM BELIZE TO NICARAGUA AND GENERATING SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND IN THESE COUNTRIES. EASTERLY TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS IN SOME OF THESE ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE RETURN OF EASTERLY TRADES TO THE NW BASIN BY MON MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...WESTERN ISLAND AS WELL AS NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHERN HAITI ADJACENT WATERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO 60W OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 26N77W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N77W TO 26N78W THAT IS PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS TO FREEPORT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR