000 AXNT20 KNHC 091804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN 27W AND 35W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE TROUGH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN GENERAL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...CONTINUING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS COLD THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N75W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 28N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N78W IN THE BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ALONG 30N94W 28N94W 27N95W 24N96W. WEAK SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 93W. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN GENERAL. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... THE TEXAS COASTAL STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...AND KVBS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. KMZG...KBQX...AND KVBS REPORT VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. KBBF REPORTS A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS... KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KEHC...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG REMAINS IN GALVESTON. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEGINNING AND/OR ALREADY HAVE BEGUN FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 27N49W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N55W 16N59W...AND TO 10N65W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD...AND DISAPPEARING GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND DISTANCE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPARATIVELY MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN CURACAO...0.11 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.09 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N78W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 5N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 80W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N80W IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AFTER 24 HOURS AND THE WIND FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR 48 HOURS. EITHER AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...OR A RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N49W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N55W...TO 16N59W...AND TO 10N65W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N10W TO 28N22W...28N35W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N45W...TO 29N53W... THROUGH 25N64W...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N67W-TO-SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N30W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 31N30W TO 31N36W AND TO 32N40W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N40W NORTHWESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 27N26W BEYOND 32N43W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 52W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N41W TO 28N37W TO 19N62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT