000 AXNT20 KNHC 090004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N19W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W AND 34W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N EAST OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 23W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS PROVIDE NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY WIND OF 10-20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS GENERATING ADVECTION FOG...THE REMAINDER NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N86W TO 23N92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL TONIGHT AND START DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF MONDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 81W WHERE MODERATE MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY EASTERLY TRADES ALONG THE BELIZE AND HONDURAS COASTLINES...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHERN PANAMA AND ADJACENT WATERS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WHICH ALONG THE TRADES MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 30 KT AND THE WESTERN BASIN WHERE 10 KT EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL U.S. TO 70W OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W...ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 28N41W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR