000 AXNT20 KNHC 080544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 01N30W TO 02N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MORE SPECIFICALLY... ENERGY FOCUSED OVER EAST TEXAS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OR FRONTS ARE REFLECTED TO THE SURFACE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN GRADUALLY MOVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN GULF AND INTO A BROAD 1013 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W...SOUTHEASTWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING N OF 24N AND W OF 89W...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 77W FROM OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W TO 19N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W...AND S OF 11N W OF 80W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLIES PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N56W. WHILE THIS FEATURES INFLUENCE REMAINS ALOFT...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-80W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER OVERALL STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT DUE TO N-NW FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N70W SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N41W. THE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AS WELL ALONG 29N/30N TO THE CANARY ISLAND AND NORTHERN MOROCCO. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 21N55W...WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N-18N BETWEEN 46W-60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN