000 AXNT20 KNHC 080004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 4N19W TO 1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-4N BETWEEN 20W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LONG-WAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS TWO STATIONARY FRONTS THIS EVENING. ONE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM GALVESTON TEXAS SE TO 23N95W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 21N92W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N91W. THE SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO PUNTA GORDA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 24N84W TO 24N90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND ADVECTS MODERATE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS HAZE AND ADVECTION FOG IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N WEST OF 90W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER SW INDIANA EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N AND PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KT TO THIS REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE LEADING FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF STARTING TONIGHT BUT THEN IT WILL MOVE BACK S AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE FAR EASTERN BASIN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WHICH ALONG TRADE WINDS MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS THIS EVENING. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE DOMINATING ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL PEAK OF WIND ENHANCEMENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... MOIST EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WHICH MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONG-WAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ALTC NEAR 30N75W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR