000 AXNT20 KNHC 071728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE GULF AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE U.S. SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS OVER THE GULF IS DEPICTED BY A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 24N87W WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY TO 22N94W AND CURVES S TO INLAND MEXICO JUST W OF VILLAHERMOSA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. THIS RIDGING IN TANDEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE FRONT....WITH A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE FOUND N OF THE FRONT TO 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG TO THE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. THERE WERE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DENSE FOG AND LIGHT RAIN MAINLY N OF THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LIES AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-90W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...BUT UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AND MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE NW GULF FROM THE PACIFIC BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN THE UPPER LEVEL. THE 0548 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A STRONG TO NEAR GALE N-NW BREEZE ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT. THE FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING BACK S AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...BUT INCREASED DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE S EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOTED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS WHERE ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND. ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THESE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... AND JAMAICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE EARLY MORNING DIURNAL PEAK OF WIND ENHANCEMENT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... MOIST EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE USUALLY FAVORED WINDWARD SLOPES BEGINNING TO SEE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC TO BEYOND 32N50W. A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 32N73W TO WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRES AT 28N79W INTO FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR NAPLES AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE NW OF THE FRONT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 29N77W TO FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH IS TAPPING INTO POOLED MOISTURE ALONG 60W S OF 15N...ENHANCING TRADE WINDS SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 29N. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK 1018 MB LOW OFF FLORIDA WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE S CAROLINA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD SUN WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER/AGUIRRE