000 AXNT20 KNHC 071149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND TO 3N10W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL W OF THE AREA. ONLY SHALLOW REMAINS FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N90W TO 22N95W WHERE IT CURVES S TO INLAND MEXICO TO MINATITLAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...AND DRIZZLE WITH POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE OBSERVED TO THE N OF THE FRONT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 85W-90W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 91W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA WITH THE AID OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH. THE NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING BACK S AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 16N80W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N E OF 64W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THESE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SAT AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT PORTION OF THE SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE ALONG 29N51W TO BEYOND 32N28W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AT 07/0900 UTC ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N70W SW TO 29N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED WEAK 1018 MB LOW AT 28N80W. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO INLAND FLORIDA JUST S OF VERO BEACH...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT W OF 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N7W SW TO 22N20W...W TO NEAR 22N30W AND TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N52W. THE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 9N-19N W OF 45W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH CENTERS...ONE OF 1026 MB AT 29N42W AND THE OTHER ONE OF 1027 MB AT 29N30W...IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC N OF 19N E OF 72W. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH THESE HIGH CENTERS WSW TO 28N55W TO 28N72W. THE WEAK 1018 MB LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE S CAROLINA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD SUN WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE