000 AXNT20 KNHC 071053 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 07 2014 CORRECTED GULF OF MEXICO SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W AND TO 2N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-25W...AND FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL W OF THE AREA. ONLY SHALLOW REMAINS FOR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO 22N95W WHERE IT CURVES SE TO INLAND MEXICO AT 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SEEN ON ON THE LATEST SHORTWAVE IT SATELLITE IMAGES. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OBSERVED N OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT WITHIN 60-75 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 86W WHERE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE FRONT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA WITH THE AID OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH. THE N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING BACK S AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 16N80W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N E OF 64W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD... TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SAT AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT PORTION OF THE SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE ALONG 29N51W TO BEYOND 32N30W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AT 07/03100 UTC ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N70W SW TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND FLORIDA JUST S OF VERO BEACH...AND CONTINUES SW FROM THERE TO NEAR FORT MYERS AND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT W OF 76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N10W SW ALONG 24N27W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N42W TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 22N50W AND SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 60W-63W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 47W AND LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N10NW TO 28N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH PRES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC AT 32N29W. THE WEAKENING ATLC WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SAT AS THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE SUN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE