000 AXNT20 KNHC 062332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AS IT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AT 06/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N88W 22N95W THEN SE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO 18N93W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE NE GULF COAST E OF A LINE FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO THE FRONT NEAR 22N95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO JUST E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE E GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE S AGAIN AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 16N80W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA E OF 63W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...AND BARBADOS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W NE ALONG 29N51W TO BEYOND 32N30W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC ENTERING AT 06/2100 UTC NEAR 32N71W TO 28N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N12W ALONG 24N24W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N46W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 17N-21N BETWEEN 60W-63W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 50W- 63W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N11W TO 31N14W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 27N24W TO 28N34W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W. W ATLC WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM S OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SAT AS THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE SUN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW