000 AXNT20 KNHC 061804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN THE EQUATOR N TO 6N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FLATTENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND EASTERN TEXAS. WEAK MID/UPPER RIDING IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FORMER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT REMAINS FOR A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N87W TO 23N91W TO 21N95W WHERE IT BENDS SE TO 19N93W AND SW TO INLAND MEXICO JUST W OF VERACRUZ. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTANT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AN N CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS. LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN...FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE OBSERVED N OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 27N W OF 86W WHERE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THAT VICINITY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE WHERE UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS STREAMING NEWD WITH THE AID OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH NEWD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA. THE N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THERE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN AS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF...AND TRACKS NE TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLC BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W ANCHORED OVER S AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW FROM COLOMBIA NNE TO ACROSS CUBA AND TO THE WESTERN ATLC. AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO SAT AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THAT PORTION OF THE SEA...AND INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH. ...HISPANIOLA... A MOIST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING QUICK PASSING ISOLATED TO THE ISLAND...AND ITS IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI. BEYOND THAT...MOISTURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OF AROUND THE RANGE OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 26N70W TO 28N60W TO BEYOND 32N39W. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NW PORTION...WHILE BROADER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE REMAINS ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT FOR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N72W TO VICINITY OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN 60 NM OUT OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE ON FRI...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. IT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 32N14W TO 22N29W TO 22N35W WHERE IT BECOMES A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 21N55W...AND CONTINUES SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N12W TO 29N23W TO 28N27W WHERE IT BECOMES FRACTURED AS IT CROSSES INTO AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH AT 32N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45-60 NM OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-62W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...AND IT EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH AT 32N35W. THIS HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE NEAR 29.5N33.5W BY EARLY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE