000 AXNT20 KNHC 061452 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W AND THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 47W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVES WITHIN A LONGER WAVE RIDGE AXIS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FORMER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT REMAINS FOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH 25N88W TO 22N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 21N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOW STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT COMMON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 29N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP ALONG AND S OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TODAY WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY VEERING AND DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW FROM COLOMBIA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI. BEYOND THAT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N50W. A FLAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE SE CONUS HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN BROADER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. THERE IS ONLY SHALLOW SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90-120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FROM 30N70W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W THROUGH 25N35W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 23N45W TO A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N58W AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W 29N25W TO 29N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM S OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB