000 AXNT20 KNHC 060556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 5N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 1N40W AND S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FLAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES WITHIN A LONGER WAVE RIDGE. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF TROUGH INDICATES THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE. THE SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT IS WANING WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 24N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA THROUGH 25N86W TO 22N94W. HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 29N IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE POPPING UP ALONG AND S OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE N COAST OF YUCATAN TO 24N BETWEEN 86W-90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEARLY IN PLACE WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY VEERING AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS EXTENDING NNW FROM COLOMBIA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE ISLAND COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A WEAKENING FLAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS WAS IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE AND SUPPORTED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W THROUGH 25N35W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 23N45W TO A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N58W AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N26W 30N35W TO 29N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOTED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N49W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION LATER THIS MORNING AND STALLS BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI AND SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB