000 AXNT20 KNHC 052338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N20W TO 3N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N31W 1N44W S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-27W AND FROM 3N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 05/2100 UTC FROM SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W CONTINUING ALONG 26N88W TO A FRONTAL WAVE BETWEEN 24N92W AND 22N95W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH INDICATES A WIND SHIFT AND EXTENDS ACROSS ST.PETERSBURG FLORIDA ALONG 25N87W 23N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL STALL FROM SW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND THU NIGHT THEN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN THE E GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 17N80W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ISLAND USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N56W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FRONT ST. PETERSBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH TO 29N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N27W ALONG 26N36W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N51W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N32W 31N39W TO 31N45W THEN DISSIPATING TO BEYOND 32N52W AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N29W TO 28N37W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N55W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION WED EVENING AND STALLS THU BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI AND SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW