000 AXNT20 KNHC 051802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS WELL INLAND AFRICA TO COAST AT 6N10W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N20W TO 1N130W TO 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-15W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SITUATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF PANAMA CITY SW TO 26N90W TO 23N94W TO INLAND MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM JUST SW OF APALACHICOLA SW TO 28N87W TO 26N90W. CURRENT NWS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG...AND WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS NUMEROUS STRIKES ACCOMPANYING THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS ALLOWING FOR DRY AIR TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CONVECTION NOT ALLOWING FOR IT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SW GULF FROM NEAR 24N91W TO 19N94W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE NW OF THE FRONT TO 28N W OF 92W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED S-SW FLOW SE OF THE FRONT CONSISTS OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SW 10-15 KT IN THE NE PORTION. WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMING RATHER ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE THU. IT WILL THEN LIFT N OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRI THROUGH SAT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND TRACKS NEWD INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLC. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH LIGHT TO MODERATE FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...THE SW PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT ALOFT NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. ONLY LOW CLOUD STREAMERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ARE PRESENT HERE. A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ADVECTING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE PRECEDES A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH FRI. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA HAS MATERIALIZE INTO NE TO 20-25 KT WINDS THERE AND TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON THU WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT...HOWEVER THE WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE ON FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR CONTINUING ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DESCRIBED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRI BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTION S OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE W IN A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 17N ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N58W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N14W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN CREST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM CUBA TO 27N72W TO NE OF THE AREA AT 32N64W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 2N15W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BROADENING TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS. A STRONG SW JET STREAM BRANCH BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS THE ADVECTING AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N AND BETWEEN 48W-51W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1025 MB HIGH WSW TO NEAR 27N77W. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ALTC FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W-53W IS TRACKING WESTWARD...AND IS ATTENDANT BY MOSTLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THIS FEATURE WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL APPROACH THE LESSER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ARE AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL ON THU BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST E OF OF NE FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH S AND SE WHILE WEAKENING AND FRACTURING THROUGH THU. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE