000 AXNT20 KNHC 051103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N26W TO 1N41W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N EAST OF 20W AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 20W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 26W-32W AS WELL AS 1S-5N WEST OF 42W. IN ADDITION...NW OF THE ITCZ THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO 26N91W TO 22N95W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N91W TO 17N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING MINIMAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MAINLY INLAND. HOWEVER...FOG AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL BASIN BY LATE WED NIGHT. ON THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PROVIDES TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THESE TRADEWINDS ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE DAY TODAY. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. BESIDES CONTINUATION OF THE TRADEWINDS...THERE IS NO OTHER FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTING WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS N OF 17N ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N65W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N25W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 43W-55W. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR