000 AXNT20 KNHC 050558 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W TO 1N41W TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 50W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 20W-28W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 42W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO 25N94W TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING MINIMAL CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MAINLY INLAND. HOWEVER...FOG AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITEHR SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE CENTRAL BASIN BY LATE WED NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PROVIDES TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE ASCAT DATA SHOW WINDS UP TO 30 KT. THESE TRADEWINDS ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. BESIDES CONTINUATION OF THE TRADEWINDS...THERE IS NO OTHER FEATURE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY BOTH THE SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND WHICH ALONG LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N44W THROUGH 20N55W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 49W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N64W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N38W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION WED EVENING AND STALLS THU THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR