000 AXNT20 KNHC 041750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO THE EQUATOR 23W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 21W-30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N102W OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORT A WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE SW OF THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT AS THE LOW MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT N OF 26N W OF 92W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-92W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE FORECAST COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT PLUS WINDS GROWING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH NORTHEASTERLIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND MIDWESTERN CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 83W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED E OF 74W EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N54W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOTH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONCENTRATED MAINLY N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W- 89W. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 30 KT... EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N68W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOISTURE INCREASING GRADUALLY N OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 29N/30N WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N74W SW TO 31N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT NEAR 31N80W SW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 78W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W- 78W. OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EASTWARD TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N38W. THIS RIDGING IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 65W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OVER THIS REGION IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N54W THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN