000 AXNT20 KNHC 041135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N16W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 30N80W 28N90W 25N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W AND 28N87W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N87W TO 26N95W...22N96W AND 19N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N95W...INLAND IN MEXICO...TO 21N100W AND 28N101W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND TO THE EAST OF 90W TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 25N90W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT KBQX...KGUL...KGBK...KEHC...KCRH...KEIR... KSPR...KATP...AND KDLP. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE...AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS...COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA..TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA FROM PANAMA CITY TO APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE TO PUNTA GORDA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.15 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N83W NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 7N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN PUNTA CANA WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N54W CENTER...TO 19N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N66W...TO 15N76W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N21W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N45W...TO A SECOND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N57W...TO 30N665...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...INCLUDING IN THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT