000 AXNT20 KNHC 040554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 1S40W AND 2S45W AT THE COAST OF BRAZIL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... AND IT CONTINUES TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N95W 19N95W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N100W...24N100W AND 27N101W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N83W TO 27N90W 23N95W 19N93W...TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W...AND FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W MOSTLY IN WESTERN CUBA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT 1100 FEET OR LOWER COVER THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG AT KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KATP...AND KIPN. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT DRIZZLE...AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS...COVER THE TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE TO PUNTA GORDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 23N94.5W TO 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 80W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 75W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.15 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N83W NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 6N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN 80W RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 21N54W CENTER...TO 19N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N7W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N19W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N55W...TO 30N66W...TO 29N77W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W...INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT