000 AXNT20 KNHC 031747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W THAT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 25N WEST OF THE FRONT SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N03W TO 02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N16W TO THE EQUATOR 28W THE ALONG THE EQUATOR TO NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 02W-10W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04NN BETWEEN 10W-24W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 32W- 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE BASIN OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION NEAR 32N116W THAT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N90W TO 23N93W TO 20N94W. OTHERWISE...NW OF A FRONT...OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL...AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR EAST OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE- ESTABLISHING ITSELF BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DRY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W NE TO BEYOND 32N64W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST NEAR 31N39W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 29N/30N WITH ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 66W...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE WEST...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE...FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 70W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N14W TO 30N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN