000
AXNT20 KNHC 031145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST MON FEB 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
A GALE FORCE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF 
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM THE COAST OF 
ALABAMA ALONG 25N92W TO 22N95W TO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 1800 UTC 
TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 5N8W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N 
BETWEEN 10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-7N 
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 30N88W SW TO 25N93W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF 
MEXICO TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. MOREOVER...THE SSMI 
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 80 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING TO THIS 
PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN 
THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR 
FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO 
GENERATE FOG N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOG IS ALSO BEING 
REPORTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE NORTHERLY WIND 
OF 25-35 KT DOMINATE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS 
REGARDING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN 
THE SW GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W TO 18N93W 
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. 
A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY TUE 
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN  
WITH AXIS EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER 
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS 
THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A TONGUE 
OF MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH 
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE TERRITORIES AND 
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS DOMINATE 
ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                             
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT 
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS A 
WESTWARD-MOVING TONGUE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF 
THE GREATER ANTILLES. BESIDES THE MOISTURE...A GENTLE TO 
MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADEWINDS MAY ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS 
THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON 
THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE WHOLE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
31N44W AND A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N30W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE 
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 6N-26N BETWEEN 35W-53W 
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR