000 AXNT20 KNHC 030554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W-22W AND S OF 1N BETWEEN 42W-46W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 33W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC IS ALONG 29N91W TO 26N94W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM OUT OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. MOREOVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING TO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO GENERATE FOG N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE NORTHERLY WIND OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE. DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE SW GULF...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N94W TO 21N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN EARLY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING N-NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A TONGUE OF MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ARE SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE TERRITORIES AND ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS SPREAD ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE FROM THE TRADEWINDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WHOLE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N43W AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 37N39W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 36W-52W WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS