000 AXNT20 KNHC 021742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 06N15W TO 04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO 01N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 01N39W THEN TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 05W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 28W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE WEST OF THE BASIN OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR 31N104W AND WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA SW ACROSS SE TEXAS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA SW TO 24N98W...IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED S OF 27N EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION LINE AS ONLY A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUST NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO DAYTONA BEACH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF N-NE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 07N75W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE WEATHER IS AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ADVECTING WESTWARD WITHIN TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-78W. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND E OF 71W AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 60W-80W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA E OF 60W IS A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N49W THAT IS PROVIDING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 40W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN