000 AXNT20 KNHC 021105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W TO 1N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 9W-19W AND FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 27W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SE TO A BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH NO INLAND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS GENERATING DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO AND OVER THE N-NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 85W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING ADVECTION FOG OVER THE SAME REGION AND INLAND ALONG THE COAST. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY MON MORNING THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO CENTRAL-EASTERN MEXICO WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE RESULTING IN OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN EASTERN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY ALONG WITH TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE ALSO FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS CUBA THROUGH MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE OCCURRING ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SE TO A BASE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N80W TO 29N81W TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. MODERATELY MOIST S-SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N52W. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 8N-26N BETWEEN 37W-51W WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR